Again, it goes back to 1967, when many felt Israel was threatened [by Israel’s Arab neighbors]. Or do troops move in? To some extent, we do know that often public opinion will follow what leaders say and do. The line itself between Israel proper and the West Bank was just not something that they saw. I think we’re probably seeing something of that here, too. Because it would seem Trump is the window of opportunity. Second of all, you have Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Fatah party, the Palestine Liberation Organization [the organization formally recognized by international bodies such as the UN as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinians], and the Palestinian Authority [the interim Palestinian governing body in the West Bank]. For major decisions or changes in law, he would need the support of the Knesset [Israel’s parliament]. So maybe this is the moment. Under the two-state framework historically supported by the United States and the international community, the vast bulk of the West Bank would be returned to the Palestinians. Geographically speaking, it’s literally the west bank, uncapitalized, of the Jordan River. Tzipi Livni, leader of the centrist Hatnuah party, also said that Hatnuah would leave the coalition in the event of annexation. '[33], In June 2019, the Donald Trump administration indicated that it might not object to the Israeli government's possible annexation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. The rest of the world has also resisted the plan: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson penned an op-ed against it. The annexation of all or part of the West Bank to Israel, with the attendant geographic expansion of the jurisdiction of Israeli institutions to include the annexed area, defies the international community’s policy of distinction in relation to Israel. Creeping annexation refers to the gradual process by which Israel expands its control over the West Bank. The Jewish left did not do very well at all in comparison. I don’t think so. We didn’t just get to this point by some exogenous force that put us here. So the former? First of all, the ambiguity creates space for the Israeli government under Netanyahu to get away with almost anything. The two-state solution isn’t really dead, and we really won’t know it’s dead until we know. It all depends on what they want to do. I mean, de facto control over much of it. [20], The West Bank is divided into Area A, Area B, and Area C. Area C contains 60% of the West Bank's area and all Israeli settlements. So there is this longstanding level of institutional interaction. West Bank annexation. They were not happy with that. I don’t think we should be surprised. And all of a sudden, after 20 years, the heartland of the Jewish people and Jewish history and Jewish religious aspects, all of that now is suddenly under Israeli sovereignty, and Israelis can actually go touch the Western Wall, their closest connection to the Old Temple. He’s a partner with Netanyahu. I don’t think so. In Israeli history specifically, we know that on big security-related issues, sometimes the public will turn around and end up supporting policies that they didn’t support before if the leaders simply implement them and then just move ahead. The one that you should look at is the Israeli Voice Index [from July 2020]. [29], A 2019 Haaretz poll investigated support for annexation among Israelis. [10][11] According to Peace Now, the proposal includes 30 settlements with 12,778 settlers, 18 illegal outposts, 15 Area A and B communities, including 44,175 Palestinians planned to remain under the nominal autonomous rule of the Palestinian Authority, surrounded by annexed territory with access roads, described by Peace Now as "..alarmingly similar to the Bantustan formula in former Apartheid South Africa" and 48 shepherding communities in Area C including 8,775 Palestinians. As the Biden administration ramps up, sign up for our essential weekly policy newsletter, Israel’s West Bank annexation plan and why it’s stalled, explained by an expert. And by moment, I’m not pinpointing a particular date and time, but this particular point in history, which could be 2019-2020. Since Netanyahu has been in power for so long, has his rhetoric helped solidify public opinion in favor of annexation? But yes, it is a risk. It took three elections, but Israel finally formed an emergency government this spring, in the middle of a pandemic and a global economic crisis. Aug. 13, 2020. Now we are going to put other people under our control and not give them citizenship. But I certainly think it’s a question that we need to be asking ourselves. There is a way out.”. Does there have to be a certain number of settlers or troops living in an area before we say, “It’s pretty clear Israel has no intention of moving to a two-state solution?” The political right, which no longer really believes in a two-state solution, is not going to get there on its own, and there’s no one on the horizon to replace them. Health care and rent are next. If you have the backing of the world’s most powerful country, then you do it. “As for the annexation of the West Bank, the Israelis will ultimately make those decisions,” Pompeo told reporters. On the one hand, that sounds good, because that means Palestinians have access to Israeli institutions, and those institutions can push the government to change its policies. The last war between an Arab state and Israel was in 1973. Blue and White sees itself as a vehicle for doing its own thing. The blocs comprise 345 square kilometers, or about 7% of the West Bank. Benny Gantz, his partner, was not as keen on annexation as originally thought, and the settlers were really upset that the plan at least created some sense, however temporary, of an actual Palestinian state. The extent of what he’s been saying is something new, but the contents or the substance itself is not new. East Jerusalem was the first part of the West Bank to be annexed; it was de facto annexed following its occupation by Israel in 1967, and de jure annexed following the 1980 Jerusalem Law.[1]. [26], Axios cite a "senior U.S. official" as saying that any Israeli annexations must come "in the context of an offer to the Palestinians to achieve statehood based upon specific terms, conditions, territorial dimensions and generous economic support." Is he sort of the kingmaker here? Why does his support matter? But for many, many right-wing Jews, many Israelis, and many people on the right who support Israel’s occupation, they see it as a political term because it doesn’t refer to being a Jewish homeland. But is the Israeli public generally supportive of the move, or is it much more divided than it appears? [5] Commanders for Israel's Security, an association of retired Israeli military officers, opposes West Bank annexation. So it has kind of left foreign policy alone, except for Trump’s intermittent pronouncements on foreign affairs. Send in e-mail Send … newsletter, plan for annexation of parts of the West Bank as soon as July 1, has some other things to deal with, like a raging pandemic and economic recession, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson penned an op-ed, was not as keen on annexation as originally thought, the settlers were really upset that the plan, as an election ploy in this latest election, as prime minister for the first part of their rotation agreement, Please consider making a contribution to Vox today from as little as $3, The one crucial thing missing from Biden’s climate plan, How Biden could expand paid family leave to more Americans. He’s been talking in these terms for a long time now. Those are more likely under those conditions. But then that date came and went, and annexation didn’t happen. It just wasn’t going as smoothly as they seemed to have thought it would, or at least they weren’t able to push it as much as they thought they would. Right, that’s a good question. What’s the deal with Benny Gantz? [12][13] The area to be annexed is about 22% of the West Bank, 90% of which is in Area C and 20% of the land is Palestinian-owned; the map that Netanyahu displayed of the area to be annexed had several errors, incorrectly noting the location of several settlements and omitting Palestinian villages. Most no longer worry about their own risk of Covid-19. Will you support Vox’s explanatory journalism? Do I have that right? Neri Zilber, an Israeli journalist, had a really interesting thread on Twitter in which he argued that everybody talks about how there’s going to be this eruption of violence from “the streets” or from Palestinians. So there’s no real answer. Has the pandemic played any role in how annexation has — or rather hasn’t — played out? Even if it does something really small and says, “We have now annexed this,” they’ve moved the goalposts and created language that actually embeds annexation into the discourse. We call it a “unity government” — it’s technically not a unity government, but he’s supposed to be the partner, the main senior partner. I don’t know if you follow discussions in the American Jewish community, or if you saw that Peter Beinart, he first had a longer piece in Jewish Currents, the left-wing Jewish magazine, and he had a piece in the New York Times. Long-time Israeli critic of the Israel-South Africa apartheid analogy, Benjamin Pogrund, who was born in South Africa, commented that were the proposal enactment, it would be tantamount to implementing an apartheid regime, and stated that his former assessment would therefore change: '[At] least it has been a military occupation. [36], The West Bank is internationally recognized as militarily occupied by Israel, though Israel disputes this[37][38] and has created nearly 200 Israeli settlements there. Judy Maltz. As part of the deal, Tel Aviv agreed to suspend the annexation. 14 percent support applying sovereignty to large settlement blocks and 8 percent support applying it to the Jordan Valley. At what point do we say that the occupation has become permanent? Millions turn to Vox to understand what’s happening in the news. It got harder than Netanyahu thought it would be. That includes a whole series of factors. So that ambiguity, I think, is really problematic and dangerous. So there’s no willpower or interest in confronting Israel anymore. I guess an obvious place to start is: What is the West Bank? [29], In midyear a jurist of international law William Schabas filed a request with the International Criminal Court asking that it investigate the architects of the plan, naming Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mike Pompeo and Jared Kushner. As part of a final peace deal, Israelis and Palestinians would negotiate what to do about the settlements, with some heavily populated blocs near Israel’s recognized borders likely to be ceded to Israel. Please consider making a contribution to Vox today from as little as $3. [39][40] According to Yuval Shany, an Israeli annexation would likely be opposed internationally because the plan would violate multiple principles. Home to nearly 3 million Palestinians, the land makes up a critical part of any future independent state of Palestine. Annexation still on the table, Netanyahu says, but U.S. asked Israel to 'temporarily postpone' applying sovereignty to parts of West Bank in order to advance the peace agreement. So that is an option. That would mean getting the support of coalition partners like [Benny Gantz’s] Blue and White party that might not necessarily be on board with everything. That’s kind of been his rallying cry ever since he got involved in national politics. And, again, you pointed out all these calculations that Netanyahu has to make, and I think that part of it is that he does genuinely believe that Israel has a right to this land, and he believes he has a role to play in getting Israel to that point. [27], On 28 May, 2020, Netanyahu said he was committed to annexing parts of the West Bank in July once a joint Israeli-US team completes mapping the exact territory based on the conceptual map released by US President Donald Trump's administration. How do you see it? That’s a really vague answer, but it’s a question I’m struggling with myself. We got here because of all the changes and the choices people have made and the developments that have been going on in the region within each country and in the United States. But perhaps if annexation has already happened, there’s probably little Biden could do to reverse it. I guess the answer is yes — but it’s not a new thing. Lawmakers representing 22 European countries say Israeli policy in the West Bank is 'eliminating the possibility of a two-state solution and entrenching a one-state reality of unequal rights and perpetual conflict'. Are his political fortunes now intertwined with his promise to annex the West Bank? The annexation would sweep up 18,918 Palestinians in 24 communities (0.8% of Palestinians in the West Bank). Obviously, there’s a lot of other stuff going on that’s kind of occupying the Trump administration, certainly its domestic energy. Secondly, it would violate the vision of a two-state solution set forth in the Oslo Accords. Share in WhatsApp. They’ve also been working together on a host of other issues related to sharing resources or economic factors. Is there any way out of this current situation? When he first came to power — not in his first term, but around his second and maybe third term — he was a little bit more pragmatic. So all those factors converged for annexation to start on July 1. Abbas has been working with Israel for a very long time on security issues, which has been to both sides’ benefit but especially to Israel. But again, we’re at this point for a reason. Creeping annexation refers to the gradual process by which Israel expands its control over the West Bank. [8][9], On 10 September 2019 (shortly before the September 2019 Israeli legislative election) Netanyahu announced his government's plan to annex the Jordan Valley, if it won the election. But again, there’s a very large constituency in Israel for holding on to the West Bank or applying Israeli sovereignty in some way. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, of the Blue and White party, averted another election, but the deal also laid out a plan for annexation of parts of the West Bank as soon as July 1. Among the signatories were Holocaust survivor Sir Ben Helfgott, historians Sir Simon Schama and Simon Sebag Montefiore; former Conservative foreign secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind; lawyer Anthony Julius; philanthropist Dame Vivien Duffield; scientist Lord Robert Winston; former MP Luciana Berger; Times columnist Daniel Finkelstein, and novelist Howard Jacobson. [6], In 2020, on the eve of plans to go forward with a form of annexation, leading figures in the British Jewish establishment, but not the Board of Deputies of British Jews, signed a letter stating that any such annexation would be an 'existential threat' both to Israel and Zionists in Great Britain, and have grave consequences for the Palestinians. Is there a world where Israel goes ahead with annexation without US support? And so people who will participate in the political arena or people who vote are aware of this. Five senators from the opposition Democratic Party introduced a resolution condemning the idea. I think a third factor is that the political right in Israel has been dominant since the 2009 election, and there’s nothing on the horizon that suggests the Jewish left, the Zionist left, is in a position to challenge them in any serious, viable way. So as a general rule, the landscape, or the context, is that most Israeli Jews think that the West Bank is, at least in some general sense, part of Israel. But there’s only so far that can go. Unless Netanyahu has lined up other parties to support him that would equal 61 seats in the Knesset, he can’t go anywhere. He views Netanyahu as older, as someone who had his chance but who doesn’t have the same level of vitality anymore. But on the other hand — this gets back to that ambiguity I was talking about — that means that Israeli law is applied not just to the Israeli citizens but to non-Israeli citizens, as well. And then there has to be security for those settlements, because many of the settlers work in Israel, and many Israelis go to these settlements for various reasons, whether it’s to buy wine or visit family. That does create a context for decisions that might break the government apart. The fact that Abbas has been threatening action for many, many years but never really follows through has essentially removed any credibility that his threats might be taken seriously. According to OCHA there are about 300,000 Palestinians in Area C[21] (B'tselem estimates between 180 and 300,000)[22] compared to some 2.8 million in Areas A and B. The Trump administration started to waffle a little bit. If you bring in scenarios, if you mention specific settlements or specific areas, it changes depending on how you ask it. Though this integration was set to occur July 1, the deadline passed with no serious action taken, leaving officials and citizens alike questioning the status of annexation [3] . But the viability of that future state is complicated by the presence of some 500,000 Jewish settlers who also live in the West Bank, in settlements dotted across the approximately 2,262 square miles of territory. Aug. 13, 2020 . It seems he’s stalling on annexation, too. "[19] Several Israeli politicians from across the political spectrum and Hebrew media outlets described this announcement as a political stunt for votes, with the former chief of staff and opposition Blue and White MK Moshe Ya'alon saying that Netanyahu had been prepared to evacuate Jordan Valley settlements in 2014. And part of that is because Israel has been the stronger power for a very long time. What that has done is, in part, made the Palestinians dependent on Israel. So I’m really not hopeful. Hundreds of European Parliamentarians Protest Israel's 'De Facto Annexation'. Israel’s stated plans for annexation would extend sovereignty over most of the Jordan Valley and all of the more than 235 illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Really. For him, that might well be enough. Again, it’s not all Abbas’s fault, and it’s not all the Palestinians’ fault — they’re just in a much weaker position and there’s no way for them to get out of that position on their own. If you add all of that together, 46 percent — almost half of Israelis — support some element, some aspect, of sovereignty. And he agrees to let Netanyahu be in a bit more of a senior position, with Netanyahu as prime minister for the first part of their rotation agreement. That’s not to say Netanyahu doesn’t have options to pressure Gantz. The two parties have different perceptions of the future and what their roles are in them. The fact that he seems to be slowing it down, I don’t think that’s surprising. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman told Netanyahu's aides at a meeting of the U.S.-Israeli mapping committee that is examining potential areas that could be annexed, that "the U.S. wants to implement a peace plan, not an annexation plan". Share in Facebook. “That’s an Israeli decision. So you end up with this whole infrastructure there. Negotiators and others have been talking about this for a long time. 3. Why does the plan seem to be stalling? For some people supportive of annexation, they think that the entire area should be annexed. I’m not sure that the Trump administration has as much energy and time to focus on this issue. And then finally, I think, you have Netanyahu. Even though the two parties share a lot of right-wing ideology, they’re not exactly the same. Is it surprising that Gantz is dragging his feet? If the US opposes it, that’s a different issue. Everything that I just said is the case, but the bigger problem is that creeping annexation has been taking place since 1967. Benny Gantz sees himself as prime minister material. Netanyahu originally planned to proceed this summer with the annexation of up to 30 percent of the West … And so there would probably be some kind of reaction: protests, demonstrations, maybe riots. But I wouldn’t say Trump’s waffling is “nerve-racking” for Netanyahu. So that is kind of the big question. Is there another way out? Given this ambiguity, do we actually know how formal annexation could happen? Buy now, pay later changed retail. [42] Gantz also announced that he would prefer that the Israeli government deal with the COVID-19 pandemic first. I’m not dismissing that community, I’m saying in terms of the political game, their ability to set the agenda is marginal. But I actually think it’s a bad thing. And from the Israeli perspective — or maybe Netanyahu’s perspective — how nerve-racking is Trump’s waffling? They’ve been working at the international level, in international institutions, in the diplomatic and legal arenas. According to the Israel Policy Forum, “annexation refers to the formal integration of all or part of the West Bank into Israel” [2]. He’s given observers a bit of a roller coaster ride. It might not be, “We are now going to choose to occupy 50 percent of the West Bank.” It might be, “We are now formally going to annex these settlements,” or the Jordan Valley, or even some smaller step. In order to appease the evangelical base of his support, Trump has been pushing hard to change massive, longstanding conditions and to really adopt the right-wing Israeli positions regarding Jerusalem and sovereignty over the West Bank. If Israel does move for formal annexation, what might the reaction be? The name West Bank is a translation of the Arabic term ad-Diffah I-Garbiyyah, given to the territory west of the Jordan River that fell, in 1948, under occupation and administration by Jordan, which subsequently annexed it in 1950. One name kept coming up. But to do that, they then end up building roads and infrastructure to hook those homes up to Israel proper. There was a sense that Netanyahu was using annexation as an election ploy in this latest election.

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